Política Energética: propostas primárias para problemas complexos?

22 set 2014 by josé carlos vaz, 15 Comments »

Em artigo recente, o Prof. Rogério Maestri (UFRGS) alertou para o primarismo das propostas de política energética da campanha de Marina Silva. No texto, chamou atenção para os riscos gerados pelas propostas constantes naquele programa. Sua implementação, tal como proposta levaria a um “caos energético” no país, por conta de desconsiderar aspectos econômicos e tecnológicos fundamentais para a definição da política energética. A adoção de “novas” tecnologias tem seus ônus, custos e timings específicos, não suficientemente considerados. O Prof. Maestri demonstra, no artigo, como a proposta desconsidera a importância da hidroeletricidade no contexto da matriz energética brasileira, não sendo capaz de propor, em prazo mais curto, nenhuma outra fonte capaz de substituí-la em termos de custo, impacto ambiental e disponibilidade. Ao contrário, propõe a adoção de tecnologias de menor viabilidade ou eficiência energética, ou de emaior custo.

Stanley-Spencer - The Resurrection-The Hill of Zion - 1946

Stanley-Spencer – The Resurrection-The Hill of Zion – 1946

A discussão sobre política energética envolve uma rede complexa de aspectos a serem trabalhados. Há inúmeros trade-offs presentes que fazem com que a formulação de propostas de política energética sejam muito arriscadas e sempre polêmicas. Recomendo a leitura do texto do Prof. Maestri para ajudar a entender a complexidade das escolhas na política energética. Acrescento abaixo algumas reflexões sobre o significado político desse tipo de escolha, indo além dos aspectos energéticos em si.

Do ponto de vista do interessa nacional, a política energética deve ter como objetivos:

a) Assegurar a soberania energética do país
O país não pode tornar-se dependente de outros para produzir e dispor da energia necessária para as atividades civis e militares. Quanto menos controle se tem sobre as fontes de energia, menos soberania se terá. Isso explica boa parte das guerras que os EUA e seus aliados promovem pelo mundo. Aparentemente sem sentido ou relevância, acobertadas por questões religiosas ou étnicas, no fundo elas atendem ao objetivo de controlar as fontes de petróleo.

A “guerra” em torno da Petrobrás, travada desde sua criação, em 1954 e, mais recentemente, a guerra em torno do pré-sal, são reflexos dessa disputa de dimensão global. O episódio da espionagem promovida pelo governo dos EUA sobre as comunicações do governo brasileiro é mais um dos capítulos criminosos dessa história. Mostra, claramente, que o jogo internacional neste campo é bruto, muito bruto. E que os jogadores mais poderosos estão dispostos a espionar, fazer guerras, derrubar governos e aviões para atingir seus objetivos…

Manter a Petrobrás e o pré-sal sob controle público é estratégico para a soberania energética do Brasil.  É esse controle público que assegurará que tenhamos soberania energética e que a população brasileira beneficie-se dos recursos gerados pela nova condição brasileira de exportador de petróleo, gerada pelo pré-sal. O discurso de que é preciso mudar o regime de exploração do pré-sal porque a Petrobrás não dá conta só serve aos interesses das grandes petroleiras dos EUA, que ficaram fora do leilão do campo de Libra. Esse leilão mostrou que a Petrobrás tem capacidade para liderar a exploração, aliada a companhias estrangeiras que aportem os recursos necessários, mas mantendo-se o controle nacional sobre o processo e preservando-se o ingresso de recursos no país.

Logicamente, não há o que se comentar sobre a proposta de “retirar a prioridade” ao pré-sal, presente no programa da campanha de Marina Silva.   Não é possível ignorar ou deixar de lado tal volume de recursos naturais disponíveis, não somente para a produção de energia, mas para toda a indústria da cadeia petroquímica, que envolve plásticos, fertilizantes e outros derivados. Também parece insano renunciar ao enorme volume de recursos destinados à educação e à saúde que serão gerados pela exploração do pré-sal. Essa proposta é de uma ignorância ou de uma má-fé atrozes, cada um que decida.

Observe-se que falar de soberania energética significa não só falar do fornecimento de energia em si, mas da cadeia de suprimentos a ela associada. Do ponto de vista da soberania, há que se assegurar também o controle sobre o suprimento de equipamentos, materiais e serviços associados à produção da energia. Quanto maior controle sobre as fontes de energia e sobre a cadeia, maior será a soberania energética de um país. Daí a importância das políticas de nacionalização dos suprimentos para a produção de petróleo, estimulando a indústria nacional e conseguindo a garantia de fontes de suprimento permanentes.

Não é sem motivo que a defesa do conteúdo nacional nos equipamentos relacionados à produção petrolífera assume papel importante na disputa eleitoral, também. Atacar o conteúdo nacional é vendido, pelas campanhas dos dois candidatos da direita (Marina Silva e Aécio Neves) como promoção de eficiência, mas a escolha é mais complexa: há um trade-off claro entre a suposta promoção da eficiência e a soberania energético (sem falar na promoção da indústria nacional e geração de emprego, uma externalidade positiva em si bastante atrativa e mais mencionada que a soberania energética). Em poucas palavras: enfraquecer as políticas de conteúdo nacional na produção de petróleo significa reduzir a nossa soberania energética, além das perdas econômicas resultantes (exportação de empregos para o exterior, enfraquecimento da indústria naval e metal-mecânica etc.).

b) Assegurar o suprimento permanente de energia necessária
Esse é o objetivo mais evidente da política. Mas sua aparente simplicidade oculta problemas sérios. Só é possível falar de suprimento permanente considerando a incidência de riscos energéticos. Em outras palavras, pensar em suprimento permanente de energia demanda uma diversificação da matriz energética, que protege o país de flutuações de preços e da oferta das distintas fontes. Essas flutuações podem ser sazonais (que são previsíveis, em larga escala) ou ter origem em processos políticos e econômicos internos ou externos.

Neste tópico, o Brasil tem avançado bastante. O risco de apagão do setor elétrico existente em 2002 foi afastado, o pré-sal coloca o país no patamar de exportador de petróleo, novas fontes tem sido exploradas (biodisel, energia eólica etc.) e o país apresenta uma matriz energética de alto grau de diversificação e relativa flexibilidade.

No entanto,  essa diversificação deve levar em conta as condições objetivas do país. Não existe uma matriz energética teórica, mas esta deve ser fruto das disponibilidades no tempo presente. As decisões de política energética podem ter impacto no curto e no longo prazo. Por outro lado, a implementação das decisões pode ocorrer no curto prazo, mas grande parte delas exige um prazo longo para se efetivarem.  Assim, não faz sentido propor alternativas que exigem prazo longo para resolver problemas do tempo presente.

c) Promover a otimização do uso das várias alternativas energéticas
A diversificação das fontes de energia traz a necessidade de otimizá-las. Se temos diversas fontes, é preciso escolher qual o peso de cada uma na matriz energética e qual o grau de flexibilidade da matriz pretendemos ter.
Uma vez que algumas fontes serão mais baratas que outras, ou terão maior impacto ou risco social e ambiental que outras, ou trarão mais externalidades positivas para o desenvolvimento econômico etc., é necessário ter clareza dos trade-offs envolvidos. O mais claro dele é o trade-off entre custo e impacto ambiental: nem sempre a energia de menor impacto ambiental é viável em ampla escala, do ponto de vista econômico ou social.
Mas há outros. Muitas vezes, a escolha entre fontes de energia significa escolher entre dois impactos ambientais negativos (por exemplo, a energia hidrelétrica e a energia eólica causam danos ambientais distintos, qual deles é mais grave?).
Otimizar as fontes exige a gestão do equilíbrio entre as diversas fontes, ponderando-se  seus respectivos custos e impactos socioambientais. Esse é um equilíbrio dinâmico, considerando-se não só as flutuações sazonais, mas também a evolução em prazo mais longo das tecnologias e dos mercados e estruturas de custo. Neste contexto, não há como propor, no curto prazo, mudanças radicais na matriz energética sem gerar aumento de custos, pressões sobre novos investimentos e perda de eficiência. Não existe almoço grátis.

 

15 Comments

  1. Ana disse:

    > Quando a BIBLIA diz que nada acontece sem que Ele dmitreene que acontee7a, e9 porque Ele como soberano e criador de tudo que existe sobre a face dessa terra, inclusive o prf3prio ser humano Ele DOMINA, DETERMINA, PERMITE e todos os outros adjetivos de DEUS soberano. Gilson me responde uma coisa, vocea acorda pela manhe3 pelos seus esfore7os? Vocea sf3 se levanta porque DEUS da energia ao teu corpo e te desperta a cada manhe3, pois quando ELE quiser nem da cama vocea sai. > O livre arbitrio que a BIBLIA diz e9 que o homem Gilson tem que escolher 2 caminhos que existem a ser seguidos, se3o eles: O BEM e o MAL, um desses caminhos escolhidos lhe trare1 o resultado esperado ou ne3o.[]

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  15. Tilly disse:

    Oct09Simo Complimenti per il risultato ma buattto dal ciccione! Shame on you!Riguardo al mio gioco: mai entrato nel piatto con meno di K10s, figure off o A8s. Neanche un punto, tranne una top pair 8 di kicker battuta dal kicker al 10. Diverse bad beat e sbattuto fuori dal ciccione nella sua prima mano giocata con AK contro il mio A10. AA direte voi, e invece avevo preso il 10 che mi c3a8 scoppiato in faccia per una scala de&1s#82l7;obelo bastardo al river. Senza recriminazioni.

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